Wisdom of Crowds & Diversity

Parameters

Population size: 200 Team size k: 10 Ability variance σ_a: 1.0 Diversity advantage d: 1.5 Trials: 500

Results

Diverse team score—

Expert team score—

Diverse wins—

Expert wins—

Verdict—

Hong-Page (2004): if diversity is high enough, the random diverse team beats the top-k experts with non-trivial prob. The mechanism: diverse heuristics explore more of the solution landscape.