Watts Cascade Threshold Model

Complex contagion: node adopts when fraction of active neighbors ≥ threshold φ

Network State

Cascade Window (z vs φ)

Parameters

Final adopted: %
Cascade steps:
Network type: Erdős–Rényi
Vulnerable nodes: %
In window:
Watts 2002: global cascades possible only in "cascade window" — low z or low φ. Complex contagion ≠ simple (SIR): threshold dependence means hubs can block cascades (high degree → harder to tip).

Adoption Curve over Time