Tipping Points & Bifurcations

Catastrophic regime shifts: saddle-node, pitchfork, and Hopf bifurcations

System

dx/dt = r + x² (fold/saddle-node)
Fixed pts: x* = ±√(-r)
Tipping point at r = 0: saddle-node bifurcation

Controls

State

r
Current x
dx/dt
Regime
Early warning signals:
• Critical slowing down (λ→0)
• Rising variance & autocorrelation
• Flickering near threshold