Climate Tipping Points

Bifurcations, Hysteresis & Catastrophic Shifts

Controls

State: Warm basin

Diagnostics

Temperature T
dT/dt
Well depth
A fold bifurcation (saddle-node) creates irreversible tipping. The system has two stable states — warm and ice-covered. Hysteresis means the path back differs from the path forward. Near a tipping point, the potential well shallows: recovery time lengthens (critical slowing down) and variance increases — early warning signals.