Demographic noise drives spiraling orbits to extinction — Gillespie algorithm
Prey: — | Predators: — | t = 0 | Status: running
1.5
0.020
1.0
0.020
The deterministic Lotka-Volterra model has closed periodic orbits (neutrally stable).
But demographic stochasticity (integer individuals, random births/deaths) causes
trajectories to spiral outward and eventually go extinct. The Gillespie algorithm
simulates exact stochastic dynamics: four reactions (prey birth, predation, predator birth, predator death)
with exponentially distributed waiting times. Extinction time ~ exp(N) — rare
but inevitable due to fluctuations. Compare to the deterministic (dashed) orbit.