Stochastic Lotka-Volterra

Demographic noise drives spiraling orbits to extinction — Gillespie algorithm

Prey: — | Predators: — | t = 0 | Status: running
1.5
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1.0
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The deterministic Lotka-Volterra model has closed periodic orbits (neutrally stable). But demographic stochasticity (integer individuals, random births/deaths) causes trajectories to spiral outward and eventually go extinct. The Gillespie algorithm simulates exact stochastic dynamics: four reactions (prey birth, predation, predator birth, predator death) with exponentially distributed waiting times. Extinction time ~ exp(N) — rare but inevitable due to fluctuations. Compare to the deterministic (dashed) orbit.