Stochastic Lotka-Volterra — Extinction & Quasi-Stationary

In the deterministic Lotka-Volterra model, predator-prey populations oscillate forever. But stochastic fluctuations (demographic noise) cause eventual extinction — the system visits a quasi-stationary distribution before absorbing. Smaller populations have faster extinction rates, and the mean extinction time scales exponentially with population size (Freidlin-Wentzell theory).

80
1.50
1.00
0.50
Prey N
Predators M
Status
Running
Time t
0