Stochastic Epidemics: Extinction & Fadeout

Gillespie algorithm simulation of the SIR model. Unlike deterministic ODEs, stochastic outbreaks can go extinct even above threshold (R₀ > 1). Multiple trajectories show the fadeout probability P_ext ≈ (1/R₀)^I₀ for small I₀.

R₀ = 2.50 | N = 500 | Extinctions: 0 / 0 runs | P_ext: 0.00
0.500
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