Earth's Energy Budget & Radiative Forcing
Greenhouse gas concentrations, logarithmic forcing, and equilibrium temperature
CO₂ forcing is logarithmic: ΔF = 5.35·ln(C/C₀) W/m². Doubling CO₂ gives ~3.7 W/m² forcing.
Equilibrium warming: ΔT = λ·ΔF, where λ is climate sensitivity (ECS ~3°C per doubling = λ≈0.8).
Pre-industrial reference: CO₂ = 280 ppm, CH₄ = 700 ppb, N₂O = 270 ppb.
Current (2024) CO₂ forcing ≈ +2.3 W/m² above pre-industrial.