Drift-Selection Balance

Wright-Fisher model · genetic drift · fixation probability




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Fixed/Lost
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Mean freq
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Pfix (theory)
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Ns (drift regime)
Wright-Fisher model: Each generation samples N offspring from binomial distribution with p' = (p(1+s)+μ(1-p)) / (1 + sp). Drift dominates when 4Ns ≪ 1, selection dominates when 4Ns ≫ 1. Kimura's fixation probability: P_fix ≈ (1-e^{-2s})/(1-e^{-4Ns}). Mutation-selection balance: q̂ ≈ μ/s.