Evolutionary dynamics: fixation probability & time
20
1.5
1
5
Mutants
1
Generation
0
Fixation prob (theory)
—
Runs
0
Fixed %
—
Moran process: at each step, select one individual to reproduce (proportional to fitness) and one to die (uniformly). Mutants have fitness r, residents fitness 1. The exact fixation probability for i mutants is ρ = (1−1/r^i)/(1−1/r^N). For r=1 (neutral): ρ = i/N. The trajectory shows population fraction over time; multiple runs accumulate fixation statistics.