Ecological Tipping Points: Fold Bifurcation

Alternative stable states, catastrophic shifts, and early warning signals

Ecological systems near fold (saddle-node) bifurcations exhibit catastrophic regime shifts: as a stress parameter slowly increases past a critical value, the system abruptly collapses to an alternative attractor (e.g. clear to turbid lake, savanna to desert). Early warning signals — rising variance and autocorrelation — precede the tipping point (critical slowing down).