Ecological Resilience & Regime Shifts

Fold bifurcation · alternative stable states · critical slowing down

Lake Eutrophication Model

Resilience Indicators

State:-
dX/dt at X*:-
Recovery rate λ:-
Variance (SD):-
Carpenter et al. (1999):
dX/dt = P − qX + rX^h/(X^h + K^h)

Critical slowing down: Near a tipping point, recovery from perturbations slows — variance and autocorrelation rise.

Scheffer et al. (2009): Generic early warning signals for catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.